The Pittsburgh Steelers and Chicago Bears are set to clash at Soldier Field on Sunday, November 23, 2025, with bookmakers and analysts nearly unanimous: this game will be a shootout. Despite murky quarterback situations on both sides — especially in Pittsburgh — the betting market is screaming Over 44.5 points at -120 odds. And after reviewing the numbers, it’s hard to argue.
Offensive Firepower Meets Defensive Gaps
The Chicago Bears enter this matchup with an 8-3 record, riding a three-game winning streak that includes a gritty 19-17 road win over the Minnesota Vikings. Their offense, now stabilized by rookie sensation Caleb Williams, has exploded: 2,300+ passing yards and 13 touchdowns this season. Behind him, the rushing duo of D'Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai ranks second in the league, averaging 133 rushing yards per game. That’s not just good — it’s dangerous against a Steelers defense that’s given up over 260 passing yards per contest and has allowed 26+ points in six of their last eight games.Meanwhile, the Pittsburgh Steelers come in at 6-5, fresh off a 34-12 demolition of the Cincinnati Bengals. But their offense is a paradox: they score 23.1 points per game, yet their defense is leaky — especially through the air. They’ve allowed 260+ passing yards in five of their last six games. And here’s the kicker: they’ve gone 5-1 to the Over in their last six matchups against NFC North teams. That’s not luck. That’s a pattern.
Home Field Advantage and Betting Trends
Soldier Field has become a fortress for the Bears this season. They’re 4-1 at home, and they’ve covered the spread in five straight games as favorites of four points or fewer. This isn’t just about talent — it’s about momentum. The Bears have won their last three home games, and in each, they’ve managed to grind out wins despite not putting up gaudy numbers. Their defense, ranked last in the league in points allowed per game (26.1), makes up for it with opportunism: they lead the NFL with 15 takeaways. That’s the kind of unit that turns a 21-17 game into a 28-24 thriller.The Steelers, on the other hand, are 2-3 on the road. Their last three away games have all gone Over the total — two of them by 15+ points. And while they’ve been solid against the Bengals, they’ve struggled against mobile QBs and balanced offenses. The Bears have both.
The Quarterback Wildcard
Here’s where things get messy — and why this game could go either way. The Steelers’ starting quarterback situation is in limbo. Ben Roethlisberger is retired. Mitchell Trubisky is injured. And Kenny Pickett has been inconsistent. But now, rumors swirl that Justin Fields — traded from Chicago earlier this season — might be activated. Or maybe it’s Russell Wilson on a short-term deal? The truth? Nobody knows. Stat Salt’s analysis even references Rodgers and Rudolph — both of whom are retired or out of the league. That’s not a typo. That’s confusion in the reporting. But the point remains: Pittsburgh’s QB play is unpredictable. And that’s exactly what Chicago’s defense thrives on.Chicago’s front seven has been relentless. They’ve forced 15 turnovers — more than any other team. If Pittsburgh’s quarterback is rusty, or under pressure, expect a fumble recovery, an interception, or a short field. That’s how the Bears win close games. And make no mistake — this one will be close.
Why the Over 44.5 Is a Lock
Sports Gambler’s analysis isn’t just a hunch — it’s data-driven. The Bears’ last five home games have averaged 48.2 total points. The Steelers’ last six games against NFC North teams? 49.7 points per game. When you combine those trends — a high-scoring offense, a porous defense, and a home crowd that loves a shootout — the math doesn’t lie. Even if the Bears win 27-24, we’re still over 44.5. If the Steelers’ offense clicks, we’re looking at 31-28. Or 34-26. Either way, the Over hits.And the betting line? Chicago is favored by 2.5 points. That’s tight. That’s a game where the underdog can hang around. And when that happens? The points pile up. The Steelers’ offense doesn’t need to dominate — it just needs to stay on the field. And with Chicago’s defense giving up 133 rushing yards a game? That’s exactly what they’ll do.
What’s Next?
If the Over 44.5 hits, expect betting lines to adjust sharply for future Steelers matchups — especially against NFC North teams. The Bears, meanwhile, could solidify their playoff position with a win. A loss? They’d drop into a tiebreaker scramble with the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers. Either way, this game is a turning point.And if Pittsburgh’s quarterback situation remains unresolved? That’s not just a story for Sunday. It’s a season-defining crisis.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is the Over 44.5 considered such a strong bet?
The Over 44.5 is backed by concrete trends: the Steelers have gone 5-1 to the Over in their last six games against NFC North teams, averaging 49.7 total points. The Bears’ home games average 48.2 points. With both teams’ defenses ranked in the bottom five for points allowed, and Caleb Williams’ offense capable of quick strikes, even a conservative game (24-21) clears the total. The line is artificially low given the matchup.
How does the Bears’ defense manage to stay competitive despite allowing so many points?
The Bears lead the NFL with 15 takeaways — a key reason they’ve won close games. They’ve forced five fumbles and 10 interceptions this season, turning those into 87 points off turnovers. Their secondary is inconsistent, but their front seven pressures QBs relentlessly. That opportunism compensates for their lack of depth and allows them to win despite giving up 26+ points per game.
What’s the real story behind the Steelers’ quarterback confusion?
Pittsburgh’s QB situation is in chaos. Mitchell Trubisky is out with a shoulder injury, Kenny Pickett is inconsistent, and rumors of Justin Fields’ activation are unconfirmed. Stat Salt’s mention of Rodgers and Rudolph appears to be an error — both are retired. But the real issue is that no clear starter is named. If the starter is a backup, Chicago’s defense will exploit every hesitation.
Has this rivalry produced high-scoring games in the past?
Yes. Their last meeting in 2021 at Acrisure Stadium ended 29-27 — a 56-point game. In 2019, they combined for 51 points. Over the last five matchups, the average total is 50.4 points. This isn’t a defensive battle waiting to happen — it’s a continuation of a trend where these teams trade blows, often with the game decided by the final drive.
What’s the betting value: Over 44.5 or Over 46?
Sports Gambler recommends Over 44.5 at -120 as the value play, while Stat Salt suggests Over 46 with higher confidence. But given the Steelers’ history against NFC North teams and the Bears’ home scoring trends, Over 44.5 is the safer bet. Over 46 requires both offenses to be on fire — possible, but less likely. The 44.5 line is a gift.
Will this game impact playoff seeding?
Absolutely. The Bears (8-3) are in the NFC playoff picture; a win would put them in control of their destiny. The Steelers (6-5) are on the bubble. A loss would drop them to 6-6, likely eliminating them from contention unless they sweep their final three games. For Chicago, this is a must-win. For Pittsburgh, it’s a lifeline — but only if they can score early and often.
